That's a question I've been asked by several people I come into contact with. The answer, in my opinion, is as complex as the question was simple. I believe we've just about seen the bottom of the downturn of our economy... for the near future. I also believe we're going to have another recession within the next two to three years. The reason for my pessimism is simple, President Obama and the Democrat controlled Congress have spent this nation into a deep hole. They've basically doubled our debt with their 'stimulus package' and now want to impose 'nationalized health care' upon us too.
Our deficit, just from the 'stimulus package' debt, has caused the world's producers of petroleum to reconsider the United States dollar as their international currency of choice. Currently, the countries of Japan, France, Russia, China and Brazil, are involved in these talks. That means the dollar will very shortly start to fall against other world currencies. Our buying power will continue to diminish and inflation will skyrocket. If this currency move does go forward, it is expected to happen over the next nine years.
I'll continue my response to the recession question in another post. It's a complex issue and has many tentacles that need to be addressed.

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Is the recession nearly over?
We've seen a slight bump in our economy over the last month or so. Most of the bump, in my opinion, has to do with the federal government pumping trillions of dollars into the economy. Yes, trillions. One trillion is 1,000 billion dollars. The drawback to the Stimulus Package passed by Congress and signed into law by Barrack Obama is that most of the monies won't be released for more than a year from now. Already, Congress is thinking of a second stimulus package. That's because they rushed the first package though with hardly any thinking into the consequences or where the monies would eventually end up. A great example of this is the 'Cash for Clunkers' program. Billions were allocated for the removal of old and inefficient cars from our roadways. It was also suppose to be an incentive for Americans to start buying durable goods... cars. This would allow domestic auto makers to sell cars that were sitting idle on dealership lots, thereby creating a need to build more new cars. Here's the problem with the 'Cash for Clunkers' program... No language in the package prevented Americans from purchasing foreign made automobiles. Since Chrysler and General motors are struggling to rebuild themselves after the federal government interjected itself/took over the companies, many people looked to purchasing cars from other automakers. Most of the 'Cash for Clunkers' monies went overseas, to foreign car companies. Its that type of short-sightedness that brings to bear the inefficiencies and waste that defines our Congress. Do we really expect any better performance from Congress if they succeed in socializing the medical industry? I think not.
Is the recession nearly over?
China is the world's largest holder of United States' debt in the form of 10 and 30 year Treasury notes. Their share of our Treasury notes and other securities exceed one trillion U. S. dollars. For the time being, China has no choice than to hold onto our Treasury notes since no other market has the ability to absorb two trillion dollars in exchange reserves. But that said, China, which has for a long time tied their yuan to our dollar, is trying to make their currency more convertible into other currencies to be used in international trade. This monetary shift is most likely part of the thinking behind China's move to trade for oil in another currency other than the dollar as mentioned in the previous post.
More to follow...